Column #414       August 4, 2023Gold Price 100-Year Chart 2023-08-01 Macrotrends

Is gold a good buy at $1,942 an ounce? You see it advertised daily with a steady drumbeat of fearmongering urging you to buy gold to protect your savings. But will it? For now I doubt it and here’s why.

The marketplace has millions, if not a billion, of things and services for sale. Each item, no matter how insignificant, competes with the others. Over time relative values are established that are powerful invisible economic forces similar to what we can experience when playing with a pair of magnets. Yet, as powerful as these forces are, they are not so ridged that the relative values of things can’t gyrate up and down versus each other for a variety of reasons.

Supply and demand will distort short-term relative values. These value distortions can last for weeks, months, and up to a few years. But rarely will they last over decades and certainly not centuries. For a simple, very basic example of relative values look at the relative prices for forks, spoons, and knives of Oneida Dover Fine Flatware pattern. A set of four Dinner Knives costs $59.99, set of four Teaspoons costs $51.99, and a set of four Dinner Forks costs $71.49. In late 1996 each set would cost half in dollars what they do today yet the relative values were the same.

In the commodity market the same relationships of relative-values impact the prices of wheat, rye, corn, and soybeans. If the price of wheat gets too low versus corn, farmers raise corn instead of wheat. In a year or two there’s a surplus of corn and a shortage of wheat. Commodity speculators know this and bet accordingly.

There’s another example of relative values in the relationship between an ounce of gold and a man’s suit. A Hart Schaffner Marx New York Classic Fit Solid Stretch Wool Suit at Nordstroms costs $795.00. In 1934 an everyday man’s suit cost $30.00 and gold was $34.69. In 1900 a nice worsted man's suit cost around $16.00 and the price of gold was $18.96.1 2 3 4 5

Does this mean that gold is actually worth only $795 an ounce? The price of a nice man’s suit, as a measure of value, sure indicates that the gold price is too high. For certain not too many men that I know of run out and buy $2,000 suits for everyday wear. Sure, some do, but not most of us.

Another way to confirm gold’s basic value is in tracking the average cost to mine an ounce of gold. That basic cost to mine one ounce is essentially the floor for the gold price. If the gold price falls below the cost to mine it, the quantity of new gold coming on the market will shrivel up. In the past that created a floor so to speak. Since 1900 the price of gold has varied from $19.00 an ounce up to $2,080.00 per ounce.

In 1970 very few mining companies were still in production because the gold price was so low. During the next 13 years the gold price shot up to $850 and the mining industry exploded with activity. The next low for the gold price occurred in 1999 when the price dropped to $252—which was close to the industry’s “Costs Applicable to Sales” (CAS) number. CAS is the minium price a mining company requires to keep mining.

The gold price plotted in price-inflation-adjusted dollars shows when the price acts as a floor and where it’s a ceiling.6


Gold Price CPI Adjusted 100 Year Historical Chart
In the past 100 years gold hit its constant dollar floor in 1920, 1970, and 2000. The peaks in 1980, 2011, and 2020 are obviously what I refer to as a ceiling. For the nominal gold price to go higher, price inflation will have to accelerate to much higher levels watering down the value of the dollar which won’t really increase the purchasing power of gold! And, we must be mindful that currently the Fed is trying to bring down price inflation, not promote it.

When examining today’s income statements from Newmont and Barrick, two major mining companies, we find that their “All in Sustaining Costs” (AISC) to mine an ounce of gold is projected to be around $1,300 an ounce in 2023. AISC includes exploration and development costs—which makes AISC significantly higher than the breakeven CAS cost to mine an ounce of gold. The current projected CAS numbers for Newmont and Barrick are about $900.7

Eldorado Gold’s 2023 projections for AISC are $1,190 to $1,290 and $860 to $960 for CAS.
Agnico Eagle is another solid gold mining company with a long record. Its 2023 projections for CAS range from $840 to $890 and AISC is expected to be between $1,140 and $1,190.

I think it’s safe to say that the “floor” for the price of gold is between $800 and $900 per ounce. During a credit crisis it’s very likely that the gold price will fall to that floor. In a deflationary environment, CAS and AISC numbers will also come down—lowering the so-called floor.

As you might surmise, when the gold price is up around $2,000 per ounce the gold miners will be going full blast producing gold. That tends to put a ceiling on the price which yields very little upside potential for now—unless price inflation explodes higher.

In a credit crisis, which usually follows a period of inverted yields where short-term interest rates have been exceeding long-term interest rates, assets are aggressively sold versus dollars. That’s because debts are denominated in dollars and dollars are what’s needed to service debts. As the economy slows down it becomes more difficult to service debts causing individuals and businesses to sell assets to meet their debt obligations.

Historically, in the credit crunches of yesteryear, the assets put up for sale range the entire gamut. That means babies are thrown out with the bath water. As a result, even superior assets such as gold can drop precipitously down to CAS—the cost of production.

When will the worst part of the crunch take place? Usually it’s when interest rates are coming down off a peak—not when they are still going up. The Fed is currently tightening the screws in an effort to slow the economy and the price inflation rate. It will continue the tightening process until something breaks and then, in a panic, it will lower interest rates to cushion the downside action it caused.

So, as gold approaches its cost of production and falls in line with the price of a man’s suit, then it will become an excellent buy for long-term protection of the purchasing power of one’s savings. But that is some months off yet.

To your health.

Ted Slanker

Ted Slanker has been reporting on the fundamentals of nutritional research in publications, television and radio appearances, and at conferences since 1999. He condenses complex studies into the basics required for health and well-being. His eBook, The Real Diet of Man, is available online.

For additional reading:

1. Historical Gold Prices—1833 to Present

2. Average U.S. Price Data

3. Historic Prices: 1900 Clothing

4. Hart Schaffner Marx New York Classic Fit Solid Stretch Wool Suit at Nordstroms

5. The Best Men’s Suits For Every Occasion And Type Of Guy by Annie Davidson Watson and Kari Molvar from Forbes Magazine

6. Gold Prices—100 Year Historical Chart from Macrotrends

7. Gold Miners’ Average AISC Resumes Rising Trend in Q1’23 and Reaches a New Record High by Adam Webb from World Gold Council